Flying High

What is Flying High?

“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”

If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

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Tabcorp Holdings Limited, one of Australia’s largest wagering and media companies was also fined more than AU$2.7 million earlier this year. ACMA clarified that Tabcorp had violated telemarketing and spam regulations over a 16-month period. 

It had sent over 217,000 marketing emails and SMS messages within a 16-day window to customers who had explicitly unsubscribed. ACMA regarded the volume and timing of these messages as significant enough to warrant enforcement action. 

In response to the penalties, Dabble Sports has agreed to a two-year court-enforceable undertaking. It has obliged the company to commission an independent review of its compliance systems. Dabble must develop a board-approved plan to implement these changes with appropriate resources.

How to play Flying High

Betfred has already shuttered 132 outlets this year, following last year’s RGD increase.

“We have tried hard to protect all our sites and the colleagues who work in them, but the combined impact of higher employer National Insurance contributions, wage inflation, increases in gambling taxes and wider economic uncertainty has left us with no choice,” said Chief Executive Jo Whittaker in a statement to iGB at the time the closures were announced.

Evoke also closed 200 of its William Hill stores in April of this year for the same reason.