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About Candy Jar Clusters
Based on its projections, EKG sees the overall sports wagering industry growing 8% year-over-year, outpacing the current baseline growth rate of 5% (a figure that strips out temporary boosts from the 2026 World Cup).
Assuming that 8% spurt is realized, it’d be impressive because since the end of the 2025 football season, only Missouri and Alberta, Canada joined the live and legal sports betting party with Arkansas opening to DraftKings and FanDuel earlier this year.
Prediction markets have proven effective at attracting sharp bettors and high-rollers who are often limited or banned by traditional sportsbooks. However, consumer surveys indicate that when given the choice between a sportsbook and a yes/no exchange, most recreational bettors still prefer the traditional sportsbook interface. That dynamic helps explain why prediction markets remain in second place.
What is Candy Jar Clusters?
Across the market, operators delivered high double-digit gains compared with Labor Day weekend, which featured a full slate of college football games but no NFL contests. Two operators, DraftKings and Underdog each saw triple-digit growth, delivering weekly increases of 125% and 119%, respectively. Three others, Polymarket, Crypto.com and Novig, saw gains of at least 30%, led by Polymarket with a weekly increase of 46%.
One interesting nugget surrounds weekend figures at Kalshi, where volume on Sunday only surpassed prior daily activity by $34 million, BofA data shows. Typically, Sunday volume for the quarter dwarfs that of College Football Saturdays due to the voracious demand for NFL offerings. BofA analyst Shaun Kelley attributes the irregularity to the possibility that Kalshi is “over indexing” on college sports.
Kelley also cited improvements at Robinhood as a possible factor for the regression at Kalshi. Just before the NFL season, Robinhood took a minority stake in Crypto.com and struck a deal to begin routing NFL contracts to OG.com, the site’s regulated prediction market platform.
About Candy Jar Clusters
During the 2025-26 NBA season, Kalshi made waves by granting an equity stake to two-time league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. According to the Wall Street Journal, Sweeney’s representatives approached Novig to express interest as a potential investor. Eventually, the company granted her an undisclosed amount in equity. The increased role of celebrity endorsements in the space is a trend that will likely receive closer observation in the coming months.
During the second half of 2026, prediction markets have endured the wrath of a plethora of state governors, most notably Kathy Hochul of New York.
As the NFL season begins, a state in close proximity to the New England Patriots became the latest to attempt to curb the influence of the trading platforms. On 10 September, one day after the Pats’ season-opening loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont addressed the growth of the markets during a speech in downtown Hartford. On the same day, the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection issued cease-and-desist orders to nine unregulated operators, including Polymarket, Robinhood and Underdog Predict.
