Fire Hopper

What is Fire Hopper?

On Thursday, the UK Gambling Commission reported that two senior figures formerly associated with the Conservative Party had pleaded guilty to offences linked to betting on the 2024 General Election date.

Anthony Lee, who served as the Conservative Party’s director of campaigning, pleaded guilty to two counts of cheating under sections 42(1)(a) and 42(1)(b) of the Gambling Act 2005.

Meanwhile, Laura Lee (formerly Saunders), his wife and former head of international for the party, who also stood as the Conservative candidate in Bristol North-West at the 2024 election, pleaded guilty to one offence under section 42(1)(a).

What is Fire Hopper?

Moving forward, history suggests that this month’s rate hike might not be the last. During hawkish periods, the FOMC has paused after an initial rate hike just once since the 1990s, per the Wall Street Journal. Over that period, the US Central Bank has typically lifted rates six to seven times throughout an upward cycle. Warsh has signalled optimism in the economy’s stability moving forward.

“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace,” he told reporters on Wednesday. “While uncertainty remains elevated, owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient, productivity growth is strong and capital investment is robust.”

Following the decision, the odds of one additional rate hike this year jumped to 48% on Wednesday afternoon on Polymarket. The contract asks traders to predict whether the upper bound of the Fed Funds Rate will hit 4.25% by the end of 2026. There is now a 21% chance that the Fed will stand pat for the remainder of year, with a slightly lower probability that the upper bound will reach at least 4.5%.

What is Fire Hopper?

As Merkur’s acquisition of Casigrangi would grant indirect control over SFC, French regulations require Merkur to launch a simplified mandatory tender offer for the remaining SFC shares it does not already hold. 

This tender offer will be at the same price of €6.19 per share.

If successful, Merkur intends to pursue a squeeze-out process, compelling minority shareholders to sell their shares, and subsequently delist SFC from Euronext Paris.