Cash Surge

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“So that is the delta we have to close by delivering a better product and better operational intensity in our sports business.”

Bengtsson said momentum from the summer’s World Cup had continued into the second half of the year.

“The World Cup, as you know, is largely a customer acquisition opportunity, and it was also combined with a good turnover period for us,” he outlined. “Yes, that has continued.

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– In the wake of a consequential ruling by the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit against Kalshi, two operators are taking separate paths in an effort to overturn the decision. On 28 August, the Ninth Circuit ruled in a 3-0 decision that sports event contracts do not qualify as federally regulated swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. Earlier this week, Kalshi filed for an en banc re-hearing with the Ninth Circuit, this time before an 11-judge review. Robinhood, meanwhile, filed a petition of certiorari with the Supreme Court in a move to effectively bypass the Ninth Circuit. It is widely believed that a circuit split between the Ninth Circuit and a separate decision by the Third Circuit will prompt the Supreme Court to take up the case.

– Real App, a social sports app built around live play-by-play, named FanDuel as its first prediction market partner. The partnership brings FanDuel’s odds and contextual markets directly into the app’s live sports experience. Fanatics Sports & Casino is adding some upgrades to its Fair Play offering. Among the changes, Fanatics has added first-half injury protection for player props. The option proved to be valuable for fans in Wednesday’s opener when Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold left the game after the team’s fifth offensive play.

– According to the American Gaming Association, an estimated $40 billion will be wagered on the NFL via prediction markets this year. Last week, on the first full day of the 2026 college football season, Kalshi reported nearly $250 million in trading activity on college football.

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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.