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While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.
In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.
Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.
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According to Multiples.VC, the average enterprise multiple (EV/EBITDA) of top US-listed gaming companies is currently 10x. Data from New York University last updated in January pegged the overall market average at 23.9x and 19.7x among EBITDA-positive firms, suggesting the sector is undervalued relative to other industries. In a report released Monday, Fitch Ratings said most North American gaming companies hold “Stable” outlooks with “adequate rating headroom” despite consumer headwinds.
Macquarie’s Beynon agrees with that sentiment, pointing to the relative stability of gaming companies through tough economic stretches such as the Covid-19 pandemic. Bankruptcies in the sector have been low relative to the broader market, he notes, and both land-based and digital companies have reason for optimism moving forward.
“It’s certainly not lost on us that this sector has underperformed for several years in a row just because it doesn’t have either the growth of say, tech companies, or the perceived free cash flow-insulated businesses, which we believe it does…We’ve thought there’s been value in the sector for a few years, particularly this year,” he told iGB.
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At the signing ceremony, Gyeonggi education chief An Min-seok emphasised the immediacy of the issue: “To effectively respond to youth gambling problems, close cooperation between the Office of Education, which best understands the school environment, and specialised prevention and treatment institutions is necessary.
He added: “I hope this agreement does not remain a mere event but leads to the implementation of practical policies.”
Korea joins many other markets, including Ireland, which in July initiated a national campaign aimed at helping parents and guardians recognise and respond to underage gambling. The campaign will be disseminated through video-on-demand services, radio, digital audio networks and social media platforms.
